Peenie Wallie: Leaded Gasoline and Crime

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October 25, 2007

Leaded Gasoline and Crime

Jessica Wolpaw Reyes, an economist at Amherst College, is trying to draw a cause-and-effect conclusion between the drop in crime in the United States and the phasing out of leaded gasoline. There are a number of problems with this. First of all is the classical problem of correlation versus causation. That is, an observed correlation between two phenomena does not necessarily mean that one causes the other, just that the two are correlated. For instance, it's well documented that people that drive John Deere tractors drink less red wine than people that drive BMW's. However, that doesn't mean that if you buy a BMW, you will start drinking red wine.

Also, there is another problem that no one seems to have picked up on. Contrary to the article, leaded gasoline wasn't phased out in the United States in the 1970's. In fact, when I moved to Colorado in 1996, it was still available for sale here. I believe it was sold as recently as 2000. There is a gas station in Lakewood on the corner of Alameda and Garrison that I know for a fact was selling leaded gasoline up until 1998. I even went in and asked them about it, because I thought it was illegal to sell it in the United States. They were like "dude...i dunno...i just work here...."

I wonder if this theory isn't as half-baked as Steven D. Levitt's widely panned abortion theory for the very same observed reduction in crime.

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