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December 2, 2009
Lord Monckton's summary of Climategate and its issues
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/01/lord-moncktons-summary-of-climategate-and-its-issues/
Enter Steve McIntyre, the one who had first realized that the UN's climate panel in 2001 had used a corrupt graph that had falsely abolished the medieval warm period with the aim of pretending that today's global temperatures are unprecedented in at least 1000 years. Later that day his website, www.climateaudit.org, revealed the truth about the conspirators' "trick".
In order to smooth a data series over a given time period, one must pad it with artificial data beyond the endpoint of the real series. However, when Mann, Bradley, and Hughes plotted instrumental data against their reconstructions based on the varying widths of tree-rings from ancient trees, their favourite form of proxy or pre-instrumental reconstructed temperature, no smoothing method could conceal the fact that after 1960 the tree-ring data series trended downward, while the instrumental series trended upward. This was the Team's "divergence":
"So Mann's solution ['Mike's Nature trick'] was to use the instrumental record for padding [both the proxy and the instrumental data series], which changes the smoothed series to point upwards."
Accordingly, though the author of the original email had said that the "trick" was to add instrumental measurements for years beyond available proxy data, his conspirators at the science-hate website admitted it was actually a replacement of proxy data owing to a known but unexplained post-1960 "divergence" between the proxy data and the instrumental data. In fact, it was a fabrication.
The next day, in a statement issued by the University of East Anglia's press office, Professor Jones fumblingly tried to recover the position:"The word 'trick' was used here colloquially as in a clever thing to do. It is ludicrous to suggest that it refers to anything untoward."
As we shall see, Professor Jones was not telling the truth.
Posted by Rob Kiser on December 2, 2009 at 10:32 PM
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